Feb 11, 2009

Israel Elections – A Very Tight Race

By Ray Gano

Netanyahu, Livni declare win in Israeli election
By STEVEN GUTKIN – 02-10-09 7:34 PM CST

JERUSALEM (AP) — Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and hard-line rival Benjamin Netanyahu both claimed victory in Israel's parliamentary election Tuesday, which early returns suggested was too close to call. With 67 percent of the votes counted, Livni's centrist Kadima Party had 29 seats in the 120-seat parliament while Netanyahu's hawkish Likud Party was right behind with 28, Israel's Channel 1 television said.

However, soldiers' votes on bases across the country weren't being tallied until Thursday evening, which could shift the results by a seat or two.

Regardless of who gets the most votes, Netanyahu's Likud Party appeared to have the upper hand in forming a ruling coalition thanks to strong showing by other right-wing parties.

Early this morning, many people were showing up to the polls in Israel. I get word that PZ Insiders are voting for Likud because it is the only chance in forming a conservative coalition.

It is now 8:25 PM CST and the race is still neck in neck, but the one who is winning is Bibi Netanyahu.


Because the Likud Party, which Netanyahu is head of, already is the ruling coalition.

So what does this mean?

In the US we vote for the person and then the party.

For example we like Joe Conservative of the Republican Party. So the odds are that when Joe wins, the Republicans gain another seat.

Well, in Israel it is the other way around. There they vote for the party and it is the party who votes who will be the leader of the party. How they come to that conclusion is by holding party elections much like we hold primaries.

When one votes in Israel, they vote for the party and it is the leader who then is put in charge. But to be put fully in charge of the country, they must form a majority coalition of parties and then they will rule.

No matter what happens, it looks like Netanyahu will be able to form the coalition and thus gain the power of the Knesset. He gains the power and in forming a coalition, he will become the Prime Minister, even if Livni wins the election.

See in Israel, it is the strongest coalition that wins and Likud has that already wrapped up. Livni pretty much lost even before the elections started.

Now, if all of this falls through and Netanyahu is NOT able to form a majority government coalition, then it is up to the President “Shimon Peres”. If he believes the winner of the election cannot form a coalition of 61 MK’s he will chose someone who he believes can.

Now, just to let you know, Netanyahu will be given, I believe, 45 – 60 days to form his coalition, but he will not need that long because as reported, he has already got that one in the bag.

Right now Likud has all the ducks in a row and Presidnet Peres will choose the winning coalition party to lead Israel for the next four years.

As things stand right now, and as most believe, it will be Likud who rules.

With almost all of the world wanting Israel to disappear, Iran working to finish a full fledged nuke as fast as possible... AND the rest of the Arab Block just drooling to destroy Israel, Netanyahu is the much needed choice.

He has said that he will not sit around and wait for Iran to destroy Israel. He has also stated that the days of Hamas are short.

So the Middle East will ratchet it up quiet a few notches.

The Real Crosshairs are on Turkey

We need to keep the eye on is Turkey. I say that due to the following:

Kyrgyz Committee Passes Bill to Shut Key U.S. Base.

The Kyrgyz parliament's defense committee has approved a bill to close a U.S. air base that is important for coalition operations in Afghanistan.

The committee's support Monday brought Kyrgyzstan a step closer to evicting U.S. forces from the Manas base.

So why is this important you may ask.

We have only TWO air force facilities in Central Asia that being the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan and the other one located in Karshi-Khanabad AB in southern Uzbekistan to the north east. The American grasp on these bases are waining.

That will leave us only two air bases in Central Asia Minor and both of these bases are in Turkey.
Now the bases in Manas and in Uzbekistan are currently leased from their respective governments, along with some hefty aid packages, benefits, etc. In fact Kyrgyzstan’s contract with the US says they have to give us 6 months to vacate. 6 months is not very long.

Another obvious point, both of these areas are also Muslim strong holds.

If things continue upon the current path, tensions will rise and we will be asked to leave these two bases. Fact is that Muslims do not like Americans, even if we have tons of cash and Wal-marts. Soon that will not matter anymore, they will no longer tolerate our western mindset any longer and demand that we leave. Folks, the writing is on the wall.

These countries are to the North East of Turkey and when these are closed to America, Turkey will be the only strategic air bases we have.

The Turkish government gave us a lot of heat about using Incirlik AB for staging and refueling for the Iraqi campaigns. Adana AB, the second of the two is located in southern Turkey. These will be the last two strongholds America will control, and our hand around these bases are slowly slipping away.

With our hand slipping away, our presence will no longer be there.

Since our presence is no longer there, we will no longer have any real strategic points in the Asia Minor / Middle East Theater.

This does not bode well with Israel, our strongest ally in the Asia Minor / Middle East Theater.

This leaves Israel exposed to Turkey, Iran and the rest of the Middle East.

Since Israel’s war in Gaza, relations with Turkey, Israel’s closest Muslim ally, have become extremely strained.

With Netanyahu gaining the PM Office, it will likely escalate.

Turkey has been rejected by the EU, they are also playing the middle man in many of the Middle East “peace” talks. It will not take much more pressure for Turkey to finally embrace their past and once again seek out their Muslim allies and push for a global Caliphate which once ruled from Turkey and the Ottoman Empire. The cherished glory days of old are being remembered and Turkey is turning her face to Mecca and not the West.

Netanyahu will not cut deals. If he does, he is out. If he is forced to go to war, he will also not have the full US capability that the US once had if the bases are forced to close. Israel will be basically standing alone with slim support from the US and possibly England. But with England going Sharia Law, hope from that front is waning.

I feel the out come of all of this may surprise many.

More to follow.